The study ‘Seizing the economic opportunity of alternative proteins in Europe: Delivering Prosperity from Farm to Factory’ conducted by Systemiq and commissioned by the Good Food Institute Europe, explores the economic opportunities that could arise from protein diversification in the EU, providing concrete figures that policymakers cannot ignore.
Global food production is undergoing rapid change, creating an opportunity for the EU to become a leader in plant-based foods and protein diversification while driving industrial and rural growth, skilled jobs, and greater resilience. The report examines protein diversification through plant-based methods, cultivated biomass, and precision fermentation, noting that scaling these sectors and reaching price parity with animal-based proteins could lower dependence on industrial animal farming systems and feed imports, bringing environmental and health benefits.
Systemiq outlines three possible pathways, depending on the level of policy support — from maintaining the status quo to positioning the EU as a global leader. The report focuses on the “Moderate Policy Support” scenario, presented as a realistic and economically robust middle way.
The economic potential
The Moderate Policy Support scenario suggests that these foods could account for 8% to 25% of EU demand for meat, dairy, eggs, and seafood by 2040. Beyond final consumer products, the sector would generate economic activity across the value chain, particularly in areas where the EU already has significant expertise, such as advanced machinery and industrial equipment, when it comes to exports. EU demand for plant-based and novel proteins and ingredients could reach €53 billion by 2040 — exceeding the current value of the European chocolate market (€47.3 billion). When the full value chain is included, the total market opportunity could rise to €79 billion.
The report also highlights opportunities for three Member States — Spain, Italy, and France. With the right framework in place, plant-based and novel proteins could become a significant economic driver by 2040. The sector could generate around €10 billion annually in gross value added in both Spain and Italy, with roughly 20% coming from the broader value chain (equipment, logistics, and inputs), while France’s contribution could reach €18 billion.
Employment potential and contribution to the EU economy
Protein diversification has the potential to create a variety of jobs, ranging from agriculture and manufacturing to science and engineering. It could foster sustainable employment opportunities, enhancing both industrial competitiveness and local livelihoods by generating almost 414,000 future-proof jobs. Farmers would benefit the most from that, as arable agriculture would account for 16% of the necessary roles. In manufacturing, the sector would create a new generation of jobs, ranging from machine operators to production technicians who transform innovations into tangible products. At the intersection of science and business, skilled technical professionals such as microbiologists, bioprocess engineers, supply chain managers, and strategy experts would drive the growth of the sector. With its strong domestic and export potential, protein diversification could generate €111 billion in added economic value, establishing itself as a cornerstone of a competitive, prosperous, and resilient EU economy by 2040.
What needs to be done to unlock the potential?
The report makes clear that Europe cannot seize this opportunity without political will. EU agriculture is already facing structural challenges — from protein import dependency and environmental pressures to a worrying lack of generational renewal. However, if EU decision-makers implement a predictable and supportive regulatory framework, protein diversification could form part of the solution. To strengthen its competitiveness and resilience in the agricultural sector, the EU needs to further streamline and ensure consistency across Member States.
Targeted public investment also has a crucial role to play. The report estimates that €690 million annually for R&D and €720 million for scaling infrastructure could help close technical gaps, accelerate innovation, and attract private capital. Compared to the economic returns identified by authors of the report, this is a strategic investment in Europe’s future competitiveness.
Failing to act risks leaving European innovators at a competitive disadvantage globally. As the report notes, “The question is not whether the EU can afford to invest, but whether it can afford not to.” Acting now could position the EU to capture the full economic, industrial, and environmental potential of protein diversification. At its core, this is an investment in Europe’s farmers, our industries, and the long-term resilience of our food system.
